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    Some economists prefer a definition of a 1. The NBER defines an economic recession as: In the United Kingdomrecessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.

    These summary measures reflect underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero.

    Policy responses are often designed to drive the economy back towards this ideal state of balance. Type of recession or shape[ edit ] Main article: Recession shapes The type and shape of recessions are distinctive.

    In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in and —91; U-shaped prolonged slump in —75, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in and — For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest.

    Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Shiller wrote that the term " When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people.

    Balance sheet recession High levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession.

    The term balance sheet derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent.

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    Economist Paul Krugman wrote in that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the financial crisis was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt--that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do.

    Japanese firms overall became net savers afteras opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus borrowing and spending by the government that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities.

    In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation generating negative real interest rates would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon.

    In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession responsive to changes in real interest rates disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic non-responsive to changes in real interest rates. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis.

    Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; the lower interest rates are like " pushing on a string.

    One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. Too many consumers attempting to save or pay down debt simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift and can cause or deepen a recession.

    Economist Hyman Minsky also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage debt relative to equity cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.

    The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially on durable goods, to build their savings.

    Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And, financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic.

    He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole. Wright, uses yields on year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. It is, however, not a definite indicator; [28] The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims.

    Stabilization policy Most mainstream economists believe that recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand in the economy, and favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. Monetarists would favor the use of expansionary monetary policywhile Keynesian economists may advocate increased government spending to spark economic growth.

    Supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital investment. When interest rates reach the boundary of an interest rate of zero percent zero interest-rate policy conventional monetary policy can no longer be used and government must use other measures to stimulate recovery.

    Keynesians argue that fiscal policy —tax cuts or increased government spending—works when monetary policy fails. Spending is more effective because of its larger multiplier but tax cuts take effect faster.

    For example, Paul Krugman wrote in December that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because indebted households were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.

    This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained In Stocks for the Long RunSiegel mentions that sinceten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months average 5.

    There is significant disagreement about how health care and utilities tend to recover. In the 16 U. Thus if the recession followed the average, the downturn in the stock market would have bottomed around November The actual US stock market bottom of the recession was in March Politics[ edit ] Generally an administration gets credit or blame for the state of economy during its time. Thus it is not easy to isolate the causes of specific phases of the cycle.

    The recession is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by Paul Volckerchairman of the Federal Reserve Board, before Ronald Reagan took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economists usually teach that to some degree recession is unavoidable, and its causes are not well understood. Consequently, modern government administrations attempt to take steps, also not agreed upon, to soften a recession. Unemployment[ edit ] Unemployment is particularly high during a recession.

    Many economists working within the neoclassical paradigm argue that there is a natural rate of unemployment which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to calculate the negative GDP gap during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0 percent, and thus is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy unless above the "natural rate," in which case it corresponds directly to a loss in gross domestic product, or GDP.

    You may improve this articlediscuss the issue on the talk pageor create a new articleas appropriate. August Learn how and when to remove this template message The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. Research in Britain shows that low-skilled, low-educated workers and the young are most vulnerable to unemployment [45] in a downturn. After recessions in Britain in the s and s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels.

    The variation in profitability between firms rises sharply. Recessions have also provided opportunities for anti-competitive mergerswith a negative impact on the wider economy: The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being.

    Fixed income benefits receive small cuts which make it tougher to survive.
    We may receive compensation when you click on links to those products or services. She wanted to understand why the credit score she received from the credit bureaus was different than the score used by her bank. I enjoy reading your blog. I have one question regarding the credit scores.

    I checked my credit scores with the three credit bureaus, and I was happy to see that my scores were all up well above for each of the bureaus.

    Then I went to my credit union. To my big surprise, the manager, after checking my scores based on their system, [said my credit] was well below what I saw with the bureaus. She told me the credit score we as consumers see with the bureaus is always higher than what lenders such as credit unions and banks see.

    My question for you is — is this really true? If so, how can we as consumers get our real credit score before going to the lender? How are they calculated? You need two things to calculate a credit score: The data comes from the credit bureaus — TransUnion, Experian, and Equifax.

    Each bureau compiles data about your bill paying habits, late payments, credit limits, credit utilization, inquires, and more. To calculated a credit score, this data must be paired with a formula. The most widely recognized formula comes from FICO. There are a few competing formulas on the market, but FICO is still the most widely used by the majority of lenders.

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    We need these two things to generate a credit score. There are, however, a couple of problems we could encounter that can result in different credit scores.

    One is that the information in your credit file may vary from one credit bureau to the next. For the most part, the data will be similar, but there will probably be some differences. The creditor may only report to one or two of them. So one will have the information, but the others will not.

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    One of your credit files may have errors in itwhich is actually quite common. The second reason, which is actually even more of a problem, is that there are multiple credit scoring formulas. There are a couple of reasons for this. FICO is constantly tinkering with its credit scoring formula to get the most predictive tool possible. Some lenders may choose to use the newest version of the formula, but others may continue to use older versions. Remember, it usually costs lenders money to update their systems with the latest FICO formula.

    The second problem is that some lenders and industries have customized versions of the FICO formula. For instance, the FICO formula used on your credit file when you apply for a home loan might be different from the formula used when you apply for a credit card. Lenders can customize their processes even more on their own.

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    Some lenders take into account other information outside of your FICO score or even your credit file. And some take into account other information that they may have on you. And this leads to each individual having a variety of possible credit scores. The good news is that if you check your credit score through FICO, it will likely be reasonably close to what most lenders will see.

    I actually know from personal experience in applying for mortgages that sometimes the score a lender receives is higher than what you get yourself. So your score could be higher or lower for a lender than it is for you.

    There are a few other things to consider. When your score gets pulled in March, the lender is using the most up-to-date data from the credit bureaus. Paying your bills on time, keeping credit card balances low, and leaving older accounts open will help raise your score. If you are in the market for a loan, the best place to find the score most likely to be used by lenders is directly from FICO. I did a study based on my own credit scores to see how similar their free!

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